There's a genuine chance Italy, France and Romania could finish in a three-way tie for second in Group C. If Romania lose by three goals to Holland, and Italy and France play to a draw, with all three teams scoring the same number of goals Tuesday, those squads will be completely level: 2 points, a -3 goal differential, and the same number of goals for and against. What happens then? The qualifying coefficient comes into play, with the tiebreaker going to the team with the highest average points earned in qualifying matches from 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008. (The average is used since teams played various numbers of qualifying matches.) That tiebreaker favors Italy.
Italy: 52 points from 22 matches= 2.36
Romania: 54 points from 24 matches= 2.25
France: 46 points from 22 matches= 2.09
Here are the other Group C scenarios:
-Romania advance with a win over Holland, regardless of the result of the Italy-France match.
-If Romania lose or draw against Holland, the winner of Italy-France advances.
-If Italy and France draw, Romania would still advance if they lose to Holland by two goals or less.
-If Italy and France draw and Romania lose by four or more to Holland, Italy and France will go to shootout for second.
-If Italy and France draw and Romania lose by three, Romania advance if they score more goals than Italy and France. (For example, Romania could lose 4-1, but would advance if Italy and France play to a 0-0 draw.)
-If Italy and France draw and Romania lose by three, and score fewer goals than Italy and France, Italy and France will go to a shootout for second. (For example, if Romania lose 3-0 to Holland, a 1-1 draw between Italy and France would send them to shootout.)
Got all that? Incidentally, the qualifying coefficient is what was used to seed teams for this tournament. That's how a team like France, with a relatively low score, end up grouped with Italy.
1 comment:
Dear Dan
Your summary is on the whole quite good but (I think) there are a few slight errors and omissions.
This is my go at it.
Imagine you are the referee for the Italy v France match.
The match has come to an end. One of them has won. You rush home. If Italy are the winning team, you go to the internet to check your bank balance. There you will find the 1 million euros which the Mafia promised you. But if France are the winning team, you quickly pack to leave for a faraway country where your wife and children are already waiting and where you hope the Mafia cannot ever find you.
You know that whoever win the match you refereed will progress to the quarterfinals, unless Romania also win against Holland. But you know that won't happen because your colleague who is refereeing that match has also been promised a million dollars to give Holland three penalties in that match. So a Dutch victory is assured. If not, it is your colleague who needs to pack quickly.
But what if despite every trick you use, the Italy v France match ends in a draw? Well, your fate depends on some complicated maths.
To help you know whether you stay or run, remember three rules (and a few more sub-rules – I did say the maths is complicated) as follows:
Rule 1
If Romania beat Holland, Romania go through to the quarterfinals. No if or but.
Rule 2
The winner of Italy v France go through to the quarterfinals, unless Romania beat Holland (see Rule 1)
Rule 3
If Italy and France draw, then -
(a) Romania go through if they beat Holland (Rule1) or if they draw with Holland;
(b) If Romania lose to Holland, then the three teams Italy, France, and Romania are level on 2 points each, then ranking is decided if possible by a mini-league involving only these three teams (i.e. the results involving Holland are disregarded). In other words, at this mini-league stage it does not matter by how wide a margin each of the three teams lost to Holland. This is what the mini-league looks at the moment:
1 Romania 2 0 2 0 1 1 0 2
2 France 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
3 Italy 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1
Sub-rule (1):
Italy will go through if there is a score draw between Italy and France, as Italy will have scored more goals than the other two teams in the mini-league. You will see that the Romania v Holland match has no impact on this mini-league if there is a score draw between Italy and France.
But if there is goal-less draw between Italy v France, then Romania and Italy cannot be separated by goals scored in the mini-league. Then, how Romania fare in their defeat by Holland will matter (since the mini-league is no longer relevant).
Sub-rule (2):
Romania will go through if there is a goal-less draw between Italy and France AND Romania lose by two goals or less against Holland pursuant to Article 7.07(d) of the UEFA Euro 2008 Regulations. In this scenario, Romania will have a better group goal difference than the other two, both of whom have lost by three goal margins to Holland.
Sub-rule (3):
If Romania lose to Holland by a 0-3 and there is a goal-less draw between Italy v Holland, then all three are level on points, goal difference and goals scored but Italy go through by virtue of having the highest UEFA co-efficient amongst the three pursuant to Article 7.07(f) of the UEFA Euro 2008 Regulations.
Sub-rule (4):
If Romania lose to Holland by any other three-goal margin (1-4, 2-5, etc) and there is a goal-less draw between Italy v Holland, then Romania go through having scored the most number of goals in all the group matches pursuant to Article 7.07(e) of the UEFA Euro 2008 Regulations.
Sub-rule (5):
If Romania lose to Holland by more than a three-goal margin and there is a goal-less draw between Italy v Holland, then Italy and France are tied on goal difference and goals scored (ahead of Romania) but Italy go through by virtue of having a higher UEFA co-efficient than France pursuant to Article 7.07(f) of the UEFA Euro 2008 Regulations.
Now, go out and referee the match if you still can.
HY
Singapore
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